11 Articles match "Rational"

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• Rational decisions?
  
  What he says is: manager have a hard time making rational decisions. They may think they are making rational decisions but they probably aren't. So making a rational decision is hard, very hard. The same effect works on them too so they won't act rationally, and how do you predict what an irrational person or business will do? My question is: if making a rational decision is so hard what can we do about it? I'm currently reading Strategy Bites Back and I'll write a proper review in time. Before then I read something on Friday that really made me think.
  Allan Kelly's Blog - Sunday, December 10, 2006
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• On Being Wrong
  
  Smart people are better at rationalizing and defending their opinions no matter how inane. The blog The Wrong Stuff has some excellent interviews about how people deal with errors or mistakes. It reminded me of a book I wanted to read, but I never got past the book review. Basically, most experts are no better at predicting the future than a drunken monkey. This quote reminds me of why I hate talking to smart people: “Most people tend to dismiss new information that doesn’t fit with what they already believe. That doesn’t mean they aren’t useful.
  Handwaving - Wednesday, August 4, 2010
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• Christmas reading: Classic essays on software development
  
  Rational Development Process and How to Fake It by Dave Parnas. In this paper Parnas argues that while we may want to use a rational development process, and while it makes sense to do so it is impossible. And since you can’t schedule these things or guarantee they will happen the chances of following a rational process are negligible. However, in order to make our work accessible to those who come after us we need to fake the development process so it looks like we followed a rational process. They slowly learn that they cannot be rational - causing a lot of angst.
  Allan Kelly's Blog - Saturday, December 22, 2007
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• Confirmation bias
  
  Confirmation bias means that we human’s aren’t a rational and neutral as we like to think we are. Couple more thoughts I picked up last week. finally found out the name of something I’ve know about for a while: Confirmation bias. This is the brain’s tendency to seek out information that supports are existing beliefs, and to put more faith in evidence that supports out current beliefs; rather than take a purely balanced view. Several of the presentations a Tom’s seminar last week demonstrated techniques that can be used to expose our assumptions.
  Allan Kelly's Blog - Tuesday, July 1, 2008
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• The final sustainable edge
  
  So, for example, lower wages mean a higher manager-to-worker ration so managers can spend more time helping the worker develop, e.g. I’ve finished reading “The Only Sustainable Edge” by Johns Hagel and Seely Brown. At the risk of boring my readers with a third entry on the subject of this book I think it deserves a wrap up - and a slight correction to some of my initial comments. See 20 August , and 18 August.) can agree with that central argument. In fact, I can imagine a lot of people agreeing with that statement. So how to the two Johns propose we do this? m not sure of this. page 38.)
  Allan Kelly's Blog - Sunday, September 4, 2005
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• Fixing Health Care
  
  Health care rationing already happens now, and it will increase in the future. The hysterical screaming over health care has reached outlandish new lows. One thing I’ve learned is that policy debates are exactly like political debates: misinformation, exaggeration, outright lies, and bitter hatred for the opposition. This isn’t a good way to transform a $2 trillion chunk of our economy. For posterity, here’s an outline of how to “fix health care”. There are two problems with health care. The second problem is that millions of people are uninsured or underinsured. and government).
  Handwaving - Tuesday, October 13, 2009
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• Velocity targeting and velocity inflation
  
  Velocity inflation is just like financial inflation rational expectations and the Lucas critique need to be considered. Continuing my mini-series on filling an iteration , velocity and all that I want to flag up a big big mistake: Velocity Targeting. Which leads to Velocity Inflation. Velocity targeting happens when someone says: “We did 15 points last iteration, lets aim for 20 this iteration”. And when the team fails to meet 20 they say something like: “What happened? We can all fall into this trap: its called Hope. We hope for a better world. In some ways this too is natural.
  Allan Kelly's Blog - Friday, June 25, 2010
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